This choice was imposed by WDOE. Using the VIC model, Mote, Hamlet, Clark, and Lettenmaier (Citation2005), Mote, Hamlet, and Salath (Citation2008), for example, showed excellent reproduction of observed trends in 1 April SWE over both the PNW as a whole and over the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington. Figure 8 shows hydrographs from selected basins with different hydrologic classifications (snowmelt-dominant, mixed-rain-and-snow, and rain-dominant) in the United States and Canada. Twenty-one daily time-step output variables were archived for the VIC simulations (Table 2). We should note that glaciers and deep groundwater (e.g., contributions to streamflow from large confined aquifers) are not simulated by the VIC model, and impacts in areas profoundly influenced by these hydrologic features may not be well characterized in the simulations (Wenger et al., Citation2010). 7 Left panel: Simulated historical 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) (upper right) and percentage changes in 1 April SWE for two emissions scenarios and three future time periods extracted from the CD VIC scenarios. If neither naturalized nor modified flow is available, no bias-adjusted data were provided. The PRISM data for Canada were interpolated to 30 arc-second resolution data from a 2.5 arc-minute (approximately 4km) product and were statistically adjusted to remove the bias associated with the different time period (19611990 means for the 4km product). To explore how much the model simulations might be improved by additional fine-scale calibration, we also recalibrated three additional smaller sites within the Pend Oreille River basin. Figure 1. Also, at about this time, successful lawsuits challenging NEPA studies because they had not addressed climate change effects began to appear (Hamlet, Citation2011). Small black dots indicate streamflow sites where naturalized flows were not available. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. Preparing for climatic change: The water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest. Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data, British Columbia Ministry of Environment (Canada), Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation, Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Composite Delta statistical downscaling method, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Two)Supported the IPCC TAR, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Three)Supported the IPCC AR4, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Five)Supports the IPCC AR5, A water resources simulation model for the CRB developed by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (, A crop system simulation model developed by Stckle et al. REVEL=Columbia River at Revelstoke Dam, CORRA=Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam, WANET=Pend Oreille River at Waneta Dam, LIBBY=Kootenai (Kootenay) River at Libby Dam, DWORS=N. Fork Clearwater River at Dworshak Dam, MILNE=Snake River at Milner, ICEHA=Snake River at Ice Harbor Dam, PRIRA=Columbia River at Priest Rapids Dam, YAPAR=Yakima River at Parker, DALLE=Columbia River at The Dalles, OR, WILFA=Willamette River above falls at Oregon City. Click the download link to get the current station data. This diagnosis is confirmed by the R 2 values for the same sites, which are generally higher and more consistent with neighbouring values over the entire domain. Until recently, a climate-change induced shift in water supply was the story of the Columbia River Basin's future. Funding was received by WSU to carry out research quantifying crop water demand, water resources system performance, and economic impacts under current climate conditions and a range of future climate scenarios. Fig. Previso do tempo local de hora em hora, condies climticas, precipitao, ponto de condensao, umidade, vento no Weather.com e The Weather Channel Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the Northwest U.S. from 1980 - 2009 and implications for salmonid fishes. Since 2014, the RDI has engaged in applied research related to community climate adaptation. Three statistical downscaling approaches were selected or developed for the study: Composite Delta (CD): regional average projections compiled from 10 GCMs (Elsner et al., Citation2010), Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD): (Salath, Citation2005; Salath, Mote, & Wiley, Citation2007; Wood, Leung, Sridhar, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004; Wood, Maurer, Kumar, & Lettenmaier, Citation2002), Hybrid Delta (HD): (Hamlet et al., 2010a). (1 April SWE and SWE2PR values were calculated using the CD VIC scenarios.). Using the VIC model, the study has projected impacts for the Great Busin and the Columbia River, Missouri River, and Colorado River basins, and assessment of impacts in California is underway at the time of writing. Right panel: Same data shown as a scatter plot of the average ratio of Q100 for the 2040s A1B scenarios to Q100 for the historical period versus historical basin-average mid-winter (DJF) temperature in each case. Each of these methods has its specific advantages and limitations (as discussed in detail in Hamlet et al., 2010a); however, the HD method combines several important strengths of the CD and BCSD methods and was developed specifically to support the prediction of daily hydrologic extremes (Hamlet et al., 2010a). Citation2000) were selected as the basis for the study because they provide a) a wide range of plausible outcomes while also reflecting some potential GHG mitigation by the end of the twenty-first century, and b) most of the approximately 20 GCM projections associated with the CMIP3 archived runs from both emission scenarios (Mote & Salath, Citation2010). Thus, each site is bias-corrected using either naturalized or modified flow but not both. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). Hamlet, A. F., Carrasco, P., Deems, J., Elsner, M. M., Kamstra, T., Lee, C., Lee, S-Y, Mauger, G., Salathe, E. P., Tohver, I., & Binder, L. W. (2010a). In addition to the time series gridded data, the long-term monthly mean data for each hydrologic variable, for each scenario, is provided in GridASCII format, compatible with ArcGIS. The most sensitive basins are mixed-rain-and-snow basins. The choice of the A1B scenario, however, was informed by the authors viewpoint that this scenario is an instructive and plausible scenario reflecting relatively little GHG mitigation until mid-century (similar to A2 until about 2050), followed by more effective GHG mitigation efforts in the second half of the twenty-first century as impacts intensify. Figure 1 shows a map of the approximately 300 streamflow locations that were ultimately compiled from these lists for inclusion in the study (a spreadsheet listing these sites is available on the CBCCSP website (CIG, Citation2013a)). . Daily streamflow data from the CD and HD downscaling methods are first processed to extract the peak daily flow in each water year of the simulations (91 years). completed or are ongoing in the Columbia River Basin. In the first five years (19952000) of operation, the research efforts of CIG were primarily directed towards the assessment of the impacts of interannual and interdecadal climate variability associated with ENSO (Battisti & Sarachik, Citation1995; Trenberth, Citation1997) and the PDO (Gershunov & Barnett, Citation1998; Mantua, Hare, Zhang, Wallace, & Francis, Citation1997). 2010. Additional meteorological forcings needed for hydrologic model simulations (e.g., net incoming long- and shortwave radiation, dew point temperature, etc.) Other climate change studies on the Columbia River and its sub-basins followed (Cohen, Miller, Hamlet, & Avis, Citation2000; Elsner et al., Citation2010; Hamlet, Citation2003, Citation2011; Hamlet, Lee, Mickelson, & Elsner, Citation2010b; Lee, Fitzgerald, Hamlet, & Burges, Citation2011; Lee, Hamlet, Fitzgerald, & Burges, Citation2009; NWPCC, Citation2005; Payne, Wood, Hamlet, Palmer, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004; Snover, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2003; Vano et al., Citation2010). The largest changes in flood risk are simulated in mixed-rain-and-snow basins. 8). Observations around the world demonstrate that the global atmosphere has been warming rapidly since the 1970s, with temperatures up an average of 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit in that time and expected to increase between 1 and 4 degrees by the 2030s, Pytlak said. RSUM[Traduit par la rdaction] Le projet de scnarios de changement climatique du bassin du Columbia (CBCCSP) a t conu comme une base de donnes hydrologiques complte pour appuyer les activits de planification, dvaluation des rpercussions et d'adaptation dans la rgion pacifique nordouest menes par une communaut d'utilisateurs diversifie disposant de capacits techniques varies dans une large gamme dchelles spatiales. Implications of global climate change for snowmelt hydrology in the 21st century, Modeling snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments, Uncertainties in hydrologic and climate change impact analyses in headwater basins of British Columbia. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Figures and summary tables for flood statistics and low-flow statistics. A subsequent study in the Skagit River basin (Lee and Hamlet, unpublished manuscript) has demonstrated that substantial improvements in the simulation of high flow extremes can be achieved by calibrating the routing model, but it is not yet clear whether these conclusions can be generalized to other areas of the domain. In much of the CRB, however, summer AET is water limited (i.e., there is abundant surface energy to evaporate whatever water is available), and changes in AET are dominated by decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios, which effectively decreases summer AET in most cases. Special thanks to Kurt Unger and Ken Slattery, who were the primary architects of the CBCCSP at WDOE. Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climate change. Les principaux produits de ltude comprennent des donnes sommaires pour environ 300 sites fluviaux dans la rgion pacifique nordouest et des produits mensuels de Systme d'information gographique pour 21 variables hydrologiques couvrant tout le domaine ltude. Regional summaries were prepared by Tohver et al. The strategy for model calibration used in the CBCCSP was to calibrate 11 relatively large sub-basins within the domain (Fig. The WDOE was also directed to incorporate climate change explicitly in these comprehensive assessment efforts. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Nakienovi et al. Either naturalized or modified flows (Crook, Citation1993) are used for bias correction of data provided in the site-specific products discussed below, with naturalized data taking precedence if available. Associated shifts in streamflow timing from spring and summer to winter are also evident in basins that currently have significant snow accumulation in winter, whereas rain-dominant basins show minimal shifts in streamflow timing. How essential is hydrologic model calibration to seasonal streamflow forecasting? The scope of work for the project called for hydrologic modellers at CIG to produce the following results: A suite of up-to-date hydrologic projections for the entire CRB (including portions of the basin in Canada) based on the CMIP3/AR4 (Meehl et al., Citation2007) GCM projections. The VIC model (version 4.0.7) was implemented at 1/16 degree resolution, with three active soil layers and up to five elevation bands with an approximate spacing of 500m. The model was run in water balance mode with a snow model time step of 1h and a water balance time step of 24h. The model was coupled to a simple daily-time-step routing model (Lohmann, Raschke, Nijssen, & Lettenmaier, Citation1998), which was used to produce daily flow estimates at each of the approximately 300 streamflow locations included in the study. The NSE scores for about 20 sites are marginal (between 0.3 and 0.7). Those who wish to do additional post-processing of the existing VIC data can access the archived model output. Following the WACCIA in 2009, the WA Legislature, via the Act relating to State Agency Climate Leadership (2009), charged WDOE and other state agencies with preparing a first climate change adaptation plan for WA. Since its inception in 1995, CIG has been extensively involved in climate-related research focused on the CRB and its water resources management systems. Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River basin, Washington, USA, Potential implications of PCM climate change scenarios for California hydrology and water resources, The role of climate forecasts in western U.S. power planning, Flow regime, temperature and biotic interactions determine winners and losers among trout species under climate change, Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics, Projected changes in climate, snowpack, evapotranspiration and streamflow in the Canadian portion of the Columbia River basin, The distributed hydrology soil vegetation model, A distributed hydrology-vegetation model for complex terrain, Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs, Long range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern U.S, Multi-objective global optimization for hydrological models. USFWS (US Fish & Wildlife Service). From ecosystems, communities, and infrastructure, to our way of lifeeverything will be affected. Hamlet, and S.-Y. (Citation2010) over the entire PNW (Tohver et al. Naturalized flow products from specific sites were also used to provide naturalized inflows at model nodes needed to run the USBR MODSIM (Labadie, Citation2007) reservoir model for the Snake River basin. A number of regional partners provided recommendations for streamflow locations and other in-kind support including Jesse Abner (MDNR), Steve Running (University of Montana), Hal Anderson (IDWR) Levi Brekke, Pat McGrane and John Roache (USBR), Carolyn Fitzgerald (Seattle District USACE), Seshu Vaddey and Randy Wortman (Portland District USACE). The first nine months of the dataset were used for hydrologic model spin-up, resulting in 91 water years (OctoberSeptember) of usable historical data from the hydrologic model simulations. La base de donnes du CBCCSP s'est avre une ressource publique prcieuse qui a permis de rduire normment les cots lis un certain nombre dtudes de haute visibilit dans la rgion pacifique nordouest et dans l'ouest des tatsUnis axes sur la coordination technique et la planification. The methods are discussed in more detail in these references, but a brief description of the procedure is given here to help orient the reader.
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